The Institute of Human Development
University of California, Berkeley
Presented a Working Conference:
"The Future of Longitudinal Studies"
March 20 - March 22, 2003
(Thursday Evening – Saturday)
At the Radisson Hotel, Berkeley Marina
It was Co-Sponsored by the following UC Berkeley departments:
The Institute for Personality and Social Research
The Psychology Department
The School of Public Health
BY FOLLOWING THE LIST OF TITLES AND PRESENTERS, READERS OF
THIS WEB PAGE CAN OBTAIN SUMMARIES OF EACH OF THE PRESENTATIONS, AND
IN SOME CASES, SLIDES AS WELL. JUST CLICK ON ANY TITLE.
In the spring of 2003, the Institute of Human Development
celebrated its 75th Birthday with a conference on longitudinal studies.
Recognizing the fact that IHD has been the home of one of the world's
longest and most comprehensive longitudinal studies, we evaluated
the current state of the art in conducting Longitudinal Studies and
outlined directions for future research.
“The Future of Longitudinal Studies: What we know; What we don’t
know; What we need to know”
Over 2-1/2 days we avoided the traditional extended presentations
of research findings, and promoted a collaborative exchange of concepts,
ideas, and concerns about longitudinal studies. The central structure
of this working conference included 22 Visiting Scholars from across
the country and from England, in dialogue with an equal number of
Berkeley faculty, with an audience of about 150.
The conference was organized around brief (10-minute) presentations
of central ideas by groups of 3-5 panelists addressing common issues
or themes. The 10 minute time frame helped presenters get to the heart
of the matter and to raise 2 or 3 central points about a topic for
discussion. The brief presentations were then followed by an exchange
among the panelists, followed by discussion with the working group
as a whole.
We are in the process of planning a book, also using an original format,
in which we can convey the results of what was a truly exciting three-day
colloquy.
Names, addresses,
and emails for the Conference Presenters and Chairs (PDF)
PROGRAM SCHEDULE
THURSDAY EVENING, MARCH 20
6:00 - 7:00 PM Welcome - Hors D'oeuvres Buffet
7:00 - 7:30 PM Opening Remarks
Phil Cowan
Welcome from the Director of the Institute of Human Development
Beth Burnside
Welcome from the Vice Chancellor for Research, UC Berkeley
Oliver John
Welcome from the Institute of Personality and Social Research (IPSR)
Karen DeValois
Welcome from the Chair, Department of Psychology
Zak Sabry
Welcome from the Associate Dean, School of Public Health
Phil Cowan
Introduction to the Conference
7:30-9 PM
I. A Brief Historical View of Longitudinal Studies: Berkeley
and Beyond
Dorothy Eichorn, University of California:,
Berkeley
Glen H. Elder, Jr.,University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill
Ravenna Helson, University of California, Berkeley
Ross Parke, University of California, Riverside
Followed By A Dessert Buffet
FRIDAY, MARCH 21
8:00 - 9:00 AM Continental Breakfast
9:00 - 10:30 AM
II. Measuring Change In Changing Times
Chaired by: Phil Cowan, University of California, Berkeley
John J. McArdle, University
of Virginia
Modeling Non-repeated Measurements Using Contemporary Modeling
Methods
Michael Stoolmiller, Oregon
Social Learning Center
Using Growth Mixture Models to Study Growth Curves Under Non-Standard
Conditions: Examples with Synergistic Interactions and Latent Classes
Keith Widaman, University of California, Davis
Measuring Change in Changing Times Using Large Data Sets
Carolyn Aldwin, University of California,
Davis
Disentangling Age, Cohort, and Period Effects
10:30 - 11:00 AM Coffee Break
11:00 - 12:30 PM
III. Inferring Causality From Longitudinal Studies
Chaired by: Elizabeth Owens, University of California, Berkeley
Robert Larzelere, University
of Nebraska Medical Center
The Difficulty of Making Valid Causal Inferences from Passive
Longitudinal Designs
Diana Baumrind, University
of California, Berkeley
When Are Causal Inferences Justified in the Debate About Physical
Discipline “Effects”?
Helena Kraemer, Stanford University
Randomized Clinical Trial (RCT) Methodology and Causality
Tom Cook, Northwestern University
Causality in Non-Experimental Longitudinal Studies
David Freedman, University of California,
Berkeley
Using Regression Models to Infer Causation
12:30 - 2:00 PM Lunch
2:00 - 4:30 PM
IV. The Reciprocal Relation Between Studies Of Health/Normality
And
Illness/Psychopathology
Chaired by: Stephen Hinshaw, University of California, Berkeley
Meg Jay and Oliver John, University
of California, Berkeley
Studying the Life Course of Depression in a Sample of Normal
Women
Alan Sroufe, Byron Egeland,
Andrew Collins, University of Minnesota
Psychopathology as Developmental Deviation: The Minnesota Longitudinal
Study of Parents and Children - Parts 1 and 2
Carolyn Pape Cowan, University
of California, Berkeley
Preventive Interventions with Non-clinical Families: Causality
and Risk in Low-Risk
Samples
Rand Conger, University of California,
Davis
The Reciprocal Relation between Studies of Health and Illness
Brenda Eskenazi, University
of California, Berkeley
Studies of Health/Normality and Illness/Psychopathology
Stephen Hinshaw, University of California,
Berkeley
The Role of Longitudinal Investigations in Developmental Psychopathology:
Necessary but Not Sufficient
John Coie, Duke University
Taking a Closer Look: Thoughts on the Next Generation of Longitudinal
Studies
4:30 - 6:00 PM Reception (Cash Bar)
SATURDAY, MARCH 22
8:00 - 9:00 AM Continental Breakfast
9:00 - 10:30 AM
V. Biology And Biomedical Studies
Chaired by Joseph Campos, University of California, Berkeley
Robert Levenson, University of California,
Berkeley
Psychophysiological Studies of Emotion in Marriage
Carolyn Halpern, University of North Carolina
Putting Biology in a Developmental Systems Model
David Reiss, George Washington University
Changes in Genetic Expression Across Time: Implications for
Developmental Theory
10:30 - 11:00 AM Coffee Break
11:00 - 12:45 PM
VI. Longitudinal Studies And Public Policy
Chaired by Tom Boyce, University of California, Berkeley
Craig Ramey, Georgetown University
Using Longitudinal Results to Inform Preschool Policy and Practice
Lindsay Chase-Lansdale, Northwestern University
The Rewards and Challenges of Multidisciplinary Policy Research:
Lessons Learned From Welfare, Children, and Families: A Three-City Study
Frank Furstenberg, University of Pennsylvania
Promoting Marriage Through Public Policy: An Unholy Campaign
Kenneth A. Dodge, Duke University
Longitudinal Studies and Public Policy
12:45 - 2:15 PM Lunch
2:15 - 4:15 PM
VII. Bringing It All Together:
Part A: 2:15 – 3:45 PM.
Chaired by Jonas Langer, University of California, Berkeley
Overview Comments On Issues Raised in the Conference
Sarah Friedman, NICHD
Solicited Large Longitudinal Studies: Is Government Scientific
Involvement Worthwhile?
Jack Block, University of California,
Berkeley
The Natural Sequence Underlying Methodological Craft
Arnold Sameroff, University
of Michigan
What Non-Experimental Longitudinal Studies Can and Cannot Accomplish
General Commentary: Michael Rutter,
Institute of Psychiatry, London
Part B: 3:45 - 4:15 PM.
Chaired by Phil Cowan
What publications on longitudinal studies are needed by the field
and who should write them?
Final discussion by the participants and audience.
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