News and Events

“The Future of Longitudinal Studies:
What we know; What we don’t know; What we need to know”

Biology And Biomedical Studies
Chaired by Joseph Campos, University of California, Berkeley
Saturday, March 22, 2003

Carolyn Tucker Halpern
"Putting Biology In A Developmental Systems Model"
University of North Carolina

There is an increased interest in implementing Developmental Systems models in empirical research. The core philosophy of this approach is that sequences and outcomes of development are probabilistically determined by the coactional operations of biological, psychological, and social/contextual factors and events. Without such an approach, cross-level co-actions and bi-directional relationships are missed; however empirical application is difficult.

Project attempting to apply Developmental Systems approach: “HIV: Pathways and Prevention”

Uses data from National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent Health (Add Health)

Add Health has three waves of data collected to date; respondents in 7th-12 grades at Wave I:
Wave I: Approx. 20,000 subjects
Wave II: Approx. 15,0000 subjects
Wave III: Approx. 15,0000 subjects

Add Health was designed to assess the health status of adolescents and explore the causes of their health-related behaviors, focusing on the effects of the multiple contexts or environments (both social and physical) in which they live. Biomarkers were added at Wave III.

“HIV: Pathways and Prevention” integrates person- and variable-centered approaches to investigate adolescent risk taking. Adolescents clustered according to drug and sexual risk taking profiles over time. Use repeated measures from multiple levels of developmental system to predict cluster membership and transitions to lower or higher risk clusters. DNA collected for siblings at Wave III allows for examination of how the same genotype may be associated with different risk taking trajectories over time, based on differential coaction with other factors and experiences, and conversely, how different genotypes may be associated with similar risk trajectories.

Issues in implementing Developmental Systems models:

Practical Issues:

  • Complex models require a large sample size to avoid empty cells and have adequate statistical power
  • Problem may be exacerbated when using biological measures that may have low population prevalence
  • Ethical issues regarding biomarker collection and storage
  • Longitudinal design compounds these issues

Analytical Issues:

  • Can we analyze:
  • Bi-directional Relationships
  • Across levels of developmental system
  • Over time

Institutional/Disciplinary

  • Lack of availability of centers that facilitate long-term inter-disciplinary collaborations
  • Do we need to re-educate ourselves in order to collaborate across disciplines?
  • Is such re-education a luxury available primarily to more senior investigators?
  • If we emphasize transdisciplinary training, do we run the risk of turning out future scientists who are “vapid eclecticists?”

Carolyn Tucker Halpern's presentation "Putting Biology in a Longitudinal Developmental Systems Model" can be viewed in PDF format, using Adobe® Acrobat® Reader®.




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